The Passenger Demand Forecasting Scheme (PDF Scheme) is an industry-led initiative that brings together train operators, government bodies, and wider stakeholders to develop and maintain a shared evidence base for forecasting rail demand.
It supports consistent, robust and evidence-led forecasting across the rail industry through research, guidance and collaboration. This enables organisations to make better-informed decisions on revenue, service planning, and investment.
How the Scheme works and supports the Rail Industry
The Scheme provides a structured and collaborative framework through which members develop, maintain and apply evidence on the drivers of rail demand.
It operates through a combination of coordinated research, shared guidance, and active industry engagement. Members contribute to and benefit from a collective approach, ensuring that knowledge and best practice are developed once and applied consistently across the sector.
Key ways the Scheme works and delivers value include:
Helping organisations apply evidence in practice to inform revenue forecasting, timetable planning, business cases, and investment decisions
Through this approach, the Scheme reduces duplication of effort, strengthens consistency across the industry, and builds confidence in forecasting outputs. It also ensures the rail sector is better equipped to respond to changing passenger needs and plan effectively for the future.
"The Passenger Demand Forecasting Scheme plays a vital role in bringing the industry together, enabling shared insight and evidence-based research that supports more informed, collaborative decision-making across the rail sector."
- David Newman, Head of Guidance, Rail Modelling, DfT
"With passenger behaviour and markets changing, forecasting is increasingly complex, making the Scheme more important than ever. It brings together a vibrant community to share insight and experience, helping us improve methods, shape future research, and provide robust evidence for policymakers."
- Ana Chan, Revenue Forecasting Lead, Network Rail
